Just 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
